Thursday, April 05, 2007
Prediction Markets
A prediction market is a market which is created to make predictions about a specific topic. They are speculative and often provide the correct predictions. Other names for prediction markets include information markets, decision markets, idea futures, event derivatives and virtual markets. The pros to a predictive market is that if they invovle the right indivduals the sample can predict the acctual verdict. The con to this is if the sample market is not informed about the topic or has no knowledge about it they cant get a relevant prediction from it. This shows the wisdom of the crowd at hand is directly correlated to the percentage of validility which comes from there conclusion.
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